Recent Publications
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In the Land of Blue Burqas The Ghosts of the Afghan Desert
In the Land of Blue Burqas The Ghosts of the Afghan Desert by Chryssoula Katsikoudi Middle East Expert A burqa - “an enveloping, loose garment covering the entire body and having a veiled opening for the eyes, worn by Muslim women.” Beneath that piece of clothing lies a forbidden face; a face of hidden beauty for the sake of faith. With the sun rising and setting in the Afghan desert, the shadows in the sand reflect the lives of women in Afghanistan. As they make their way through the desert, that blue, turquoise color of clothing, hiding their identity, turns the desert into a field of sand and blue waves, longing underneath the blazing sun;…
The U.S. Strategic Options for the European Energy Security
The U.S. Strategic Options for the European Energy Security by Michalis E. Diakantonis Economist and Geopolitical Analyst One of the most important issues of the U.S. policy toward Europe is that of European energy security. Given that the E.U. has expressed its intention to reduce the use of coal by 2020, it is obvious that this energy "gap" should be covered either by renewable energy sources (RES) or by natural gas. Although that the RES are an environmentally friendly form of energy, their use requires expensive investments in new technologies that are difficult to be implemented within a context of economic recession. Therefore, the only economically viable…
The Sunni Axis Revisited
The Sunni Axis Revisited by Nickolaos Mavromates International Relations Expert/Historian Ankara being a master in the field of Diplomacy is well known. Turkey's Byzantine-Anatolian heritage combined with the influence of Sunni and Alevi Islam converses by itself. Mr. Nahum Barnea's recent Op Ed Article entitled "The Sunni Axis” and the proposed role of Turkey in it fail to realize the multifaceted challenges confronting the region.[1] Many Israelis seem to discount the fact that Turkey's military arsenal and new industrial strength that translates into an imperial image has been financed by the “Arab oriented Green Islam”. In addition it…
The Triangle Greece-Cyprus-Israel
The Triangle Greece-Cyprus-Israel by George Koulouris International Relations Expert Lately, there has been an improvement in relations between Greece-Cyprus and Israel. Common place constitute the exploitation of natural gas and the prevention of Turkey’s regional hegemony. It seems that these countries follow the quote «the enemy of my enemy is my friend», as both have problems with their neighbour country Turkey. This fact constitutes one of the basics factors about the imminent collaboration of those countries. Turkey’s foreign policy, during the last years, based on the strategic depth, has been viewed to become a regional power, something that the…
To Kill for Honor: The Case of Femicide in Jordan
To Kill for Honor: The Case of Femicide in Jordan by Chryssy Katsikoudi Middle East Expert Violence against women in the Arab world has not reached a stage of debate, yet, solely because women in the Middle Eastern culture are occupants of the domestic, and patriarchal system in which Western theories are not applicable. Violence can be inflicted either physically, or verbally, but in any cases physical violence has become part of an institutionalized patriarchal system in which Arab women have become victims. Most violence against women usually take place in the home. In Jordan, for example, like in many other Arab countries, the majority of adult Jordanian women live with…
The French Connection: Fight to Push Back Mali Islamists
The French Connection: Fight to Push Back Mali Islamists by Kristopher Kaim Director of Middle East and Counterterrorism Affairs (GSFC) The French military arrived in Mali on Thursday, January 10th, 2013 to assist in fighting insurgents in the northern part of the country. French President Francois Hollande had met with Mali President Dioncounda Traore in Paris the day before in order to discuss the insurgency in his country and was to stop the fighting. Hours later, French aircraft attack rebel positions in the north and continued working in conjunction with the Mali military. Previously, the French military only aided Mali in training and providing logistics for the…
Lights Out: The EMP Threat and Potential New Arms Race
Lights Out: The EMP Threat and Potential New Arms Race by Kristopher Kaim Director of Middle East and Counterterrorism Affairs (GSFC) Forget potential nuclear annihilation, terrorism, war, and any other calamity that humanity has known, especially over the last 100 years, but one of the biggest threats against America – even the world – is an EMP attack. An electromagnetic pulse attack is not simply Hollywood fiction but a real and perceivable threat that not only has average citizens on edge but also governments as well. The ability to wipe out a nation’s electrical grid means an end to the nation itself and the potential for an EMP attack is far more…
The Arab Spring and Russian Winter
by Kristopher Kaim Director of Middle East and Counter-Terrorism Affairs (GSFC) Russia is increasingly becoming more accepting of the end of the Assad regime in Syria. Since the civil war started almost two years ago, Russia has aided their Assad ally with material and Special Forces units and had become combative to Western powers and the United Nations by not joining them in support of the rebels. Within the week, there have been utterances of this shifting acceptance from Mikhail Bogdanov, a top Russian advisor in Middle East affairs and from Russian President Vladimir Putin himself. Yet, while this is a sign of changing perceptions regarding the Syrian conflict, the Russians…
The EU Energy Policy in the Emerging Gas Era
by Maria Kottari International Relations Expert Energy has been the cornerstone of European integration; steel and coal, the main military resources of the two world wars, served the pillars of the European Communities in early ’50s. European Steel and Coal Communities have been an effort to bridge the division gaps amongst the European nations and to interlink their economies in such an inextricable way that new controversies, or even a new war outbreak, would be materially impossible and high costly. Today, the dense interdependence of the EU member states economies, as the current economic crisis has proved it clearly, demands a higher level of integration and…
Greek Debt: The Inefficient New Agreement and the Risky Games of Germany
by Michalis E. Diakantonis Economist and Geopolitical Analyst The decisions taken in Eurogroup (26-11-2012) on the Greek debt matter were warmly welcomed by the Greek government and the E.U. Does the new agreement recommend a truly sustainable solution or the initial euphoria is excessive? What the international economic actors suggested before the agreement and what are their estimates after its conclusion? How Greece is being affected by Germany’s domestic political scene and when a final solution will be given to the Greek problem? First, let me briefly mention the recent decisions of Eurogroup, which include: 1) reduction of interest rates on loans taken by Greece…
Oil Abundance in the Gulf… And the Rest of the World
by Nicole Leonard International Relations Expert In the 1970s, economists and scientists developed and distributed the theory of “peak-oil,” the point in which oil extraction reaches its highest point followed by a fatal decline in the amount of extractable oil. They predicted the world would reach “peak-oil” in 1995. Until only quite recently, we have been bombarded by ominous warnings that oil will soon “run out” and the world will be completely unprepared and descend into chaos. It turns out to be a total farce, or a gross miscalculation, or a conspiracy theory of some variety, whichever you choose to believe. Once-large Middle East…
Déjà Vu
by Kristopher Kaim Director of Middle East and Counter-Terrorism Affairs (GSFC) On November 22nd, 2012, Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi passed a decree which granted him sweeping powers. As part of his decree, any and all judgments passed by Morsi are not to be scrutinized and the Constitutional referendum assembly cannot be abolished by the judiciary. This was met immediately with protests as citizens gathered in Tahrir Square – the site of the Arab Spring in Egypt – and demanded Morsi to rescind his decree. Others were calling for his resignation. Morsi enjoyed brief positive exposure in the international spotlight recently as he helped spearhead a cease-fire…
Have Faith in Europe
Have Faith in Europe by Evangelos Karvvarits International Relations and Strategic Studies Expert The European Union is an organization that brought peace and prosperity in the continent and helped to stabilize the international system. It has been through many different historical phases and has faced serious problems in the past, as in now. But it never stopped evolving. Many analysts[1] have a rather pessimistic point of view, mainly because of Europe’s stance during the recent economic crisis and its lack of coherence. But for my perspective all those theories don’t seem to understand the way Europe has emerged and evolved in the past. I will argue that,…
The Two Faces of Qatar
The Two Faces of Qatar by Chryssy Katsikoudi Middle East Expert Smaller than the state of Connecticut, with a native population of less than 300,000 and occupying a small peninsula on the coast of the Arabian Peninsula, this small Persian Gulf State called Qatar has been a significant international player in the recent years. Currently ranking amongst the highest in oil and gas reserves, as well as the country’s GDP ($150,6bill) and GDP/Capita ($179,000), this small Arab emirate has experienced one of the worst economic times as well as becoming the world’s richest country. As far as their involvement with other countries in the Middle East and North Africa, Qatar…
Understanding Russia’s Reaction to the Arab Spring
Understanding Russia's Reaction to the Arab Spring by Christianna Liountri International Relations Expert Russia's stance in the Syrian crisis has given the opportunity to western analysts to characterize it as the scapegoat of the international community, since with its decision to veto the UN Security Council's Resolution; it was named responsible for the escalation of violence in Syria. However, when carefully examining Russia's Foreign Policy, interpretations on the basis of aphorisms should be avoided. After the end of Cold War and the identity crisis that Russia has gone through, Russia has chosen to implement a conservative policy, promoting the…
The “Fourth Kind of War” Truth or Myth?
The "Fourth kind of War" Truth or Myth? by Ilias Papadopoulos International Relations Expert ABSTRACT After the collapse of the USSR, and the end of the Cold War, it has come under debate whether or not a new kind of war has appeared in the international stage. In this article we will try to show that while the essence of war remains the same, its methods of waging it have changed. The Strategic “Orthodoxy”-Clausewitzian Thought In order to make any conclusions in the essence of war, we must start from the basics, which are Prussian military scholar Carl von Clausewitz. According to him the essence of war comprises from three ingredients, each of…
Political Turmoil, Terrorism and Energy Competition in Africa
Political Turmoil, Terrorism and Energy Competition in Africa by Michalis Diakantonis Economist and International Affairs Analyst The African continent has always been a field of intense economic rivalries among different powerful states, which sought to have access to its natural resources. At the same time, Africa has been a source of strong transnational conflicts over border, economic, racial and religious issues and for this reason it has experienced extremely violent and bloody civil strives. The atmosphere of timeless violence, tension and instability appears to have continued in recent years, especially in countries belonging to the areas of Maghreb and Sahel. As will be…
Turkey’s Ergenekon Case and the False Promise of Democracy
Turkey's Ergenekon Case and the False Promise of Democracy by Christianna Liountri International Relations Expert On the 21st of September, a Turkish court announced its judgment on the Sledgehammer case which is directly related to the Ergenekon organization. This evolution, regardless the democratic cloak it bore, provokes questions with regard to the real motives and political pursuits of Erdogan. A first conclusion that can be reached is the coordinated effort on behalf of Erdogan to deconstruct the political threat coming from the Turkish army, so that he can easily establish his own “Islamic deep state”, rather than promoting democracy within the Turkish…
The Strategic Logic of Posturing in the China – Japan Island Dispute
The Strategic Logic of Posturing in the China - Japan Island Dispute by Evripidis Tsakirides Intrernational Affairs Expert The recent rekindling of the Senkaku Islands dispute between China and Japan caused a major outpouring of articles speculating on the possibility of conflict between the two countries. True enough, both sides engaged in activities aiming to demonstrate their beliefs concerning their rights over the islands. Despite the rhetoric and the flexing, however, the two disputing sides have so far refused to escalate the conflict. This poses the following set of interesting questions: If both sides are so eager to defend their claims over this set of small islands in…
Cyber Deterrence and its Challenges
Cyber Deterrence and its Challenges by Vassilios Damiras, Ph.D. (ABD) GEOSTRATEGIC FORECASTING CORPORATION - GSFC CEO Cyber deterrence is an important definition on the security lexicon. Nonetheless, various security experts and commentators argue that is extremely difficult to execute cyberspace deterrence, because it is difficult to identify the origins of threat that appears via the internet. Deterrence strategy planning goes back to the Thucydides and the Peloponnesian War, and the subject grew during the cold war as the United States military structure faced the Soviet menace. As history indicates deterrence is cheaper than its alternative to engage in a continuous…
The Recent Visit of the Turkish Foreign Minister to Athens: Another Lost Opportunity for the Delimitation of a Greek Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in the Aegean Sea?
The Recent Visit of the Turkish Foreign Minister to Athens: Another Lost Opportunity for the Delimitation of a Greek Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in the Aegean Sea? by DALAKLIS Dimitrios, Cdr. H.N., Lecturer in the Hellenic Naval Academy (HNA), Department of Combat Systems, Naval Operations, Sciences of the Sea, Navigation, Electronics and Communication Systems. CHRYSOCHOU Georgios, Lt H.N., Lecturer in the Hellenic Naval Academy (HNA), Department of Combat Systems, Naval Operations, Sciences of the Sea, Navigation, Electronics and Communication Systems. Introduction In the aftermath of the last visit (October 2012) of the Turkish Foreign Minister (Ahmed Davutoglou) to…
When the E.U. becomes “Europe” again. Fundamental arguments that indicate an unstable European future
When the E.U. becomes “Europe” again. Fundamental arguments that indicate an unstable European future by Alexandros Th. Drivas International Relatios Expert There are always many things that we could set into dialogue concerning the E.U. Especially, there is a significant question: Could the E.U. fulfill its starting goal, which is stabilizing and unifying the states of Europe? During the decades of 1950 and 1960, optimism is gaining ground in Europe, so there is an unprecedented agreement among forces which have been in conflict for ages. Adaptation policies and theories of liberalism and functionalism, tried to make Europe more homogeneous, in order for…
Quantitative Easing: Creating “Bubbles” and Currency Wars
Quantitative Easing: Creating “Bubbles” and Currency Wars by Michalis E. Diakantonis Economist and Geopolitical Analyst The low rate of economic growth and the persistent unemployment in the U.S., the decline of economic expansion in China and the severe economic crisis in Eurozone have caused an immediate reaction from the central banks worldwide. Central bankers are trying to end the prolonged recession and bring a wind of optimism in the global economy through policies of “quantitative easing” (QE) and low interest rates. But what are the medium-term consequences of these economic policies? Before we move on with the possible effects of these…
The Role of Intelligence in Countering Terrorism on Iraq, 2003-2008
The Role of Intelligence in Countering Terrorism on Iraq, 2003-2008 by Ilias Papadopoulos International Relations Expert ABSTRACT In this article we will study the role of intelligence in combating terrorism, having Iraq as a case study. We will argue that the pursuit of the counter-terrorism agenda, solely based in the use of military force, doesn’t produce positive results. On the other hand, results can beachieved by analyzing the counter-terrorism model in the use of intelligence and theapplication of military force, only when other avenues of action have been spent. Defining Intelligence Before we proceed any further, we need to define the term…
Why Religion Matters
Why Religion Matters by Evangelos Kravvaritis International Relations and Strategic Studies Expert According to a report published by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life[1], the percentage of the Americans who are religiously unaffiliated, has risen to just fewer than 20%. When it comes for people under the age of 30, the percentage climbs up to 32%, almost one out of three! Although the United States of America remains one of the most religious countries in the world, far more than Western Europe, there is a trend shaping up that might have more consequences that it looks. So, many would ask why such a thing as religion is so serious or why should Americans be worried…
Disinformation and Subversive Agitation in the Alterglobal Movement
Disinformation and Subversive Agitation in the Alterglobal Movement by Giuseppe Gagliano President Centro Studi Strategici “Carlo De Cristoforis” – Cestudec (Italy) Overview The analysis and study of the operating methods of social movements and the ideological content linked to the same, can easily be traced on the basis of open sources, which after adequate reinterpretation using the methodological approach to sociology of social movements, and the French school of psychological warfare, those of Géré and Pisano in particular, reveal the significant role that alterglobal movements play in the social destabilization of political (both…
Cultural Subversion and Disinformation in the Thought of Frans Van der Hoff and the Slow Food Movement
Cultural Subversion and Disinformation in the Thought of Frans Van der Hoff and the Slow Food Movement by Giuseppe Gagliano President Centro Studi Strategici “Carlo De Cristoforis” – Cestudec (Italy) Abstract The scope of this article is an analysis of the mechanisms of psychological warfare applied in the use of the thought of the Dutch theologian Frans Van der Hoff and the Slow Food movement through the methodological approach developed by the Ecole du Guerre Economique and Roger Mucchielli. As is widely known in the history of psychological warfare, the definition given to subversion by the French psychologist Roger Mucchielli in 1976 has wielded…
Post-Qaddafi Libya: A Western Success Story?
Post-Qaddafi Libya: A Western Success Story? by Liountri Christianna International Relations Expert September 12/ 2012: U.S. Ambassador to Libya killed in consulate attack. That was the headlines on that day. Questions were raised on the reason why something like that would happen to a country set free by a NATO-led operation. A plain answer would be: “To oust a regime is one thing but it is something fundamentally different to install a viable entity in its place”. Few are aware that other attacks preceded the murder of ambassador Stevens: on the 5th of June, the American diplomatic mission was attacked in revenge for the death of Abu Yahya al-Libi (one of al-…
The Kurdish Dimension of the “Arab Spring”: American and Turkish Perspectives
The Kurdish Dimension of the “Arab Spring”: American and Turkish Perspectives by Liountri Christianna International Relations Expert The uprisings in the Arab world and particularly the one in Syria, has re-opened an issue that was well-repressed in International Politics: the Kurdish one. The Kurds [1] comprise the largest nation deprived of its own country, while the Kurdish minorities in Syria, Turkey and Iraq lack fundamental political rights and freedoms. The withdrawal of American troops from Iraq in December 2011 alongside the events recorded in Syria and Iraq after the Arab Spring have raised well-founded concerns to the Turkish leadership regarding…
The Sino-Japanese conflict and how the U.S. can socialize China with an Asian policy in 21st century
The Sino-Japanese conflict and how the U.S. can socialize China with an Asian policy in 21st century by Alexandros Th. Drivas International Affairs Expert Although the U.S. elections have monopolized the attention of international community, there are -at least- three major situations that are crucial for international system. Middle East is the first region in which we observe dangerous actions among the states of the region. Secondly, we are observing the economic crisis in the European Union (E.U.) which threatens to shake the world economy. Finally, East Asia reminds to us that it holds the center of geopolitical power and a regional war is a very possible scenario. The…
Saudi Arabia is not Bluffing about its Capability to Acquire a Nuclear Arsenal
Saudi Arabia is not Bluffing about its Capability to Acquire a Nuclear Arsenal by Evripidis Tsakiridis International Affairs Expert A regional nuclear arms race in the Middle East is often cited as a negative consequence of an Iranian nuclear weapons program. Sure enough, Saudi Arabia has threatened to acquire a nuclear arsenal, as a counter to any future Iranian proliferation attempt.[1] Is this a credible threat? Saudi Arabia currently possesses the will and the capacity to arm itself with a limited arsenal of nuclear weapons. This conclusion is the product of a combination of two sets of facts: 1. Saudi Arabia already possesses an arsenal of missiles whose only logical…
Why the U.S. Doesn’t Wish a New Global Currency?
Why the U.S. Doesn’t Wish a New Global Currency? by Michalis E. Diakantonis Economist and Geopolitical Analyst The adoption of a new "global" currency is a challenging topic for the international economical and political society. This issue is contemporary again, because of the adverse effects induced by the world economic crisis of 2008. In this article, we examine why such an option is not desirable for the American leadership and why this decision is directly related to the preservation of the economic and military supremacy of the U.S. Many economists think that part of the global economic instability is due to imbalances produced by the absence of an…
The Conflict Between Israel and Iran as a Mixed-Strategy Game
The Conflict Between Israel and Iran as a Mixed-Strategy Game by Michalis E. Diakantonis Economist and Geopolitical Analyst The purpose of this article is to examine the Israel-Iran diplomatic relations and the possibility of an armed conflict between them. Our analysis is based on game theory, as it has been expressed by mixed form strategies[1]. The first option O1 (Israel doesn’t take military action against Iran) has two possible outcomes: Either Iran continues developing its nuclear program or it abandons it (under the “pressure” and the sanctions imposed by the international community). The probability P1 expresses the estimation of Israel that Iran…
Cyber Threats: An Evolving and Pernicious Global Menace
Cyber Threats: An Evolving and Pernicious Global Menace by Vassilios Damiras, Ph.D. (ABD) GEOSTRATEGIC FORECASTING CORPORATION - GSFC CEO Cyber threats are the new security dilemma of the twenty-first century. These kinds of high tech attacks threaten to destroy or severely damage critical global economic interests and undermine world wide security stability. The growing dependency on the information technology (IT) makes cybersecurity a vital component of the U.S. national security infrastructure. Lately, data collection, processing, storage, transmission capabilities, mobile, wireless, and cloud computing are increasing in huge numbers and make cyberattacks easily to…
The 21st Century Battlefield
The 21st Century Battlefield by Kristopher Kaim Director of Middle East and Counter-Terrorism Affairs (GSFC) Entering in the 21st century, technology has granted society the ability to connect with each other throughout the world in real time. The internet has allowed the facilitation of ideas, products, services, and information across the planet and with it private markets have flourished and governments and businesses have become more efficient in accumulating and transferring data. The internet has proven to be a necessity now than it has been when it was first made available commercially in the early 1990s. Today cyberspace has become a battlefield. Individuals and groups…
The U.S. Greek Relationship and NATO
The U.S. Greek Relationship and NATO by Col. Taxiarchis Sardellis Defense & Military Attaché Greek Embassy Washington, D.C. All those new threats to regional and global security that lead to exceedingly uncertain international environment and the understanding that our world order is increasingly interdependent, as demonstrated by the current financial crisis, oblige us to work more collectively and cooperatively. The current international system is characterized by many uncertainties, but one thing is certain. The relationship between Europe and the US in the general context and that of Greece and the US more specifically, remains the foundation for our common…
The Victory of Realism Against a Liberal World
The Victory of Realism Against a Liberal World by Alexander Th. Drivas International Affairs Expert The theoretical discussion of International Relations is perhaps the most important aspect of the whole subject. Both theory and methodology of I.R. recommend the core of all case studies in which we can make interpretations and assessments. In the early years of my studies, a professor of mine gave to me an overview of the meaning of International Relations theory, saying that “all theories are searching the way to preserve peace and try to give a prediction”. Peace and prediction are the fundamental objectives of the whole theory of International Relations. The main…
National Security Issues and Greece
National Security Issues and Greece by Col. Taxiarchis Sardellis Defense/Military Attaché Greek Embassy Washington, D.C. On this presentation will be mostly based on my personal experience and knowledge that I have acquired over the years on issues of Security having served in key positions both in multilateral organizations, such as NATO, and from the operational and training commands of Greek and international military forces in Greece and in ongoing operations. Two world wars taught humanity of the necessity to infuse international relations with respect for a few simple yet powerful ideals, such as respect for peace and good neighborly relations; respect for the…
The Embassy Attacks
The Embassy Attacks by Kristopher Kaim Director of Middle East and Counter-Terrorism Affairs (GSFC) The United States has been reeling from a series of protests and attacks at U.S. embassies and consulates in the Middle East. On the 11th anniversary of the September 11th attacks, American ambassador to Libya, J. Christopher Stevens, was killed along with two ex-Navy SEALS, Glen Doherty and Tyrone Woods along with Information Officer Sean Smith. Gunmen attacked the Libyan consulate at around 10:30 pm Libyan time with small arms and explosives and was able to breach the perimeter. Most of the staff was escorted out to safety and since been flown to Germany for debriefing but the…
NATO and its Challenging Security Dilemma
NATO and its Challenging Security Dilemma by Vassilios Damiras, Ph.D. (ABD) GEOSTRATEGIC FORECASTING CORPORATION - GSFC CEO North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was an ingenious American inception how to introduce and promote political and military stability in Europe and face the Soviet threat. Specifically, NATO had three major goals, first to support and maintain American presence in Europe mainly the Western parts of the European continent, second to control Germany, and third, to keep the Soviet military menace out of Western Europe. Since the genesis of NATO many things have changed in European security matters. NATO’s role in the European stability and…
The Grand Strategy of Assad’s Regime in the Syrian Conflict
The Grand Strategy of Assad's Regime in the Syrian Conflict by Michalis E. Diakantonis Economist and Geopolitical Analyst The term “grand strategy” refers to the rational management and combination of all power factors that a state has to succeed at its political and military objectives. That means, that a state’s macroscopic grand strategy, applies not only in wartime periods but also in periods of peace[1]. If, however, we limit our analysis to wartime periods only, grand strategy includes all the available means that are being used by the warring sides to achieve their war aims. In this case, the grand strategy has five main dimensions: 1) military…
Russia and Global Geo-economics in Challenging Times
Russia and Global Geo-economics in Challenging Times by Vassilios Damiras, Ph.D. (ABD) GEOSTRATEGIC FORECASTING CORPORATION - GSFC CEO The post-communist Russia lost an opportunity to create and experience a strong liberal transformation. A number of circumstances inhibited Russia’s change to an open and democratic socio-political system: traditions, culture, history, an anti-Western ethno-nationalism, the necessity to accomplish four crucial revolutions (create a new and modern state, promote a free market economy, democratize the new Russian regime, and abandoned old imperial identity). Also, the traditional matrix of militarism still exists. After the…
The Syrian paramilitary Group (Al Shabbiha): Who are they?
The Syrian paramilitary Group (Al Shabbiha): Who are they ? by Aref Alobeid, Ph.D. Expert in Middle Eastern Affairs In the new era of Arab Spring (Arabic Revolutions ) new terms have been coined in each local community in revolt, like Shabbiha, Baltatzia and Zoeran, words which are used by the demonstrators to express or characterize the arrogant behavior of authoritarian regimes against their people . The name Shabbiha comes from the word "Shabah" which means the ghost that acts without being visible to others (not be seen by others). Even the second meaning symbolizes a model car brand Mercedes, which is a different type from all other cars, like a bat. In…
Wildfires in Colorado: Is this a terrorist attack?
Wildfires in Colorado: Is this a terrorist attack? by Kristopher Kaim Director of Middle East and Counter-Terrorism Affairs (GSFC) On June 23rd, 2012, a wildfire was started in Colorado Springs, Colorado which has spread to cover almost 18,000 acres, forced the evacuation of over 35,000 people, and left two dead. With over 150 National Guard troops and 1,500 fire fighters combating the blaze, there are reports of progress as currently over 50% of the fire has been contained. Yet while this is happening there are over 50 untamed wildfires in the western part of the United States. While wildfires are not unusual this time of year as low precipitation make for drought conditions,…
Iranians Plotted Attack against U.S. and Israeli Targets in Kenya
Iranians Plotted Attack against U.S. and Israeli Targets in Kenya by Kristopher Kaim Director of Middle East and Counter-Terrorism Affairs (GSFC) On June 19th, 2012 two Iranian agents were detained in Kenya after confessing to plotting attacks against Israeli and American targets in the country. The two agents, Ahmad Abolfathi Mohammad and Sayed Mansour Mousavi confessed to Kenyan authorities and lead them to a location where 33 pounds of RDX explosives were found. Currently, the two agents, who are suspected of being part of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Al Quds Force, are under arrest and are appearing in Kenyan court. It has been said by Mohammad that Israeli agents have…
The Syrian Revolt: Dimensions and Perspectives
The Syrian Revolt: Dimensions and Perspectives by Aref Alobeid, Ph.D. Expert in Middle Eastern Affairs The Syrian uprising is not only a rebellion for morality, freedom, equality, dignity and justice, but also it is the revolt that will determine the future of the Arab Spring in the periphery of the Middle East. A year has passed since this rebellion has started and the pace of demonstrations is becoming increasingly, more intense. At least 11,500 people have been killed, over 40,000 are arrested and at least 5,000 are missing[i]. Moreover, the wounded cannot be counted because they don’t dare to go to hospitals. The Syrian regime has chosen the military solution in…
Al-Shabaab Merger with al-Qaeda: Strategic Implications
Al-Shabaab Merger with al-Qaeda: Strategic Implications by Moshe Terdman Middle East Analyst On February 9, 2012, al-Qaeda's leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, announced in a video message circulated throughout the Jihadi forums that Somalia's radical Islamic organization, al-Shabaab, has joined ranks with al-Qaeda. Thus, al-Shabaab has been the second African radical Islamic organization to merge with al-Qaeda after al-Qaeda Organization in the Islamic Maghreb joined the umbrella organization in September 2006. The relationship and collaboration between the two organizations goes back to before September 2001, when the first future leader of al-Shabaab, Aden Hashi Farah…
IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM Best and Worst Case Scenarios
IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM Best and Worst Case Scenarios by Vasileios Giannakopoulos, Brigadier General (retired) of Hellenic Air Force Geostrategic Analyst, Athens, Greece Current Situation Since 1950’s Iran has developed a civilian nuclear program. In the 1990's it began pursuing an indigenous nuclear fuel cycle capability by developing a uranium mining infrastructure and experimenting with uranium conversion and enrichment. It suspended its enrichment and conversion activities in 2003, but resumed uranium conversion in 2005, and started enrichment in 2006, increasing the enrichment level to almost 20% in 2010. Today, there are strong doubts that its enrichment…
The Greek Deficiency: A Very Short Geopolitical Perspective
The Greek Deficiency: A Very Short Geopolitical Perspective by Lieutenant Colonel Yannis Papanikolaou of Hellenic Army The default of the American home market back in 2008 resulted in a debt crisis in the heart of the European Union. It started in Iceland, Ireland and moved to the European South. What the Germans seem to miss, for the 3rd time, regarding the debt crisis, is that they still have contrary interests with the Anglo-Saxons. For another time Berlin is trying to impose political and economic control over Europe with London making everything possible to stop this effort. Remember the strong opposition of London regarding the contribution of EU member states to…
The Undeclared War Between Iran and Saudi Arabia
The Undeclared War Between Iran and Saudi Arabia by Aref Alobeid, Ph.D. Expert in Middle Eastern Affairs Historically, Iran has blamed the Arabs for the demise of the Persian Empire in 636 A.D. The predominance of the ideas of the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979, the current Tehran's nuclear program and the Iranian interventions against the internal affairs of the Arabic neighboring Gulf countries, constitute grounds of concern for the regime of the family Saud in Saudi Arabia, which is the old rival of Iran. The factors that give to Saudi Arabia the power to compete with the other member of the Middle East at the regional level are firstly, the leader of the Sunni…
Syria, Turkey, Iran and the Kurdish Problem
Syria, Turkey, Iran and the Kurdish Problem by Biradier General Christos Minagias, (Retired) of Hellenic Army A year ago, Syrian-Turkish relations were composing the symbol of the Turkish diplomacy success and the strategic depth of the minister of Foreign Affairs, Ahmet Davutoğlu. The two countries, in a short period of time, promoted their strategic collaboration, organized common government meetings, opened the borders, abolished visa restrictions, extended their commercial relations and developed their military collaboration. Nevertheless, after the Syrian people revolt against the Baath fascist regime, Turkey changed its policy, detached itself from the president Bashar…
Presidential election in Egypt: Fluid political situation and major challenges
Presidential election in Egypt: Fluid political situation and major challenges by Brigadier General Vasileios Giannakopoulos, (Retired) of Hellenic Air Force Presidential Election On May 23 and 24, 2012 (with a run-off on 16 and 17 June 2012, if necessary), Egypt will hold its first presidential election in post-Mubarak era. The political situation in Egypt is characterized as complicated and is getting tougher day by day. During the post-Mubarak era, the two powerful Egyptian forces, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) and the politico-religious movement of Muslim Brotherhood (MB), pursue to govern the most populous country in the Arab world.…
European Union and United States a Perplexing Partnership
European Union and United States a Perplexing Partnership by Vassilios Damiras, Ph.D. (ABD) GEOSTRATEGIC FORECASTING CORPORATION - GSFC CEO Europe’s major powers such as, Britain, France, Italy, and Germany were severely devastated by the end of World War II, the vision of a united, democratic, and peaceful Europe obtained greater momentum in the aftermath of the war. European leaders started thinking to create an economic cooperation that can bring the various European nation-states together. This idea was nothing new. Previous attempts to European unification can be traced back to the Roman Empire, the Byzantine Empire, Charlemagne, Napoleon Bonaparte, and Adolf…
On a New Level of War: The Business Level of War and the Military Reform
On a new level of war: The Business Level of War and the Military Reform by Lieutenant Colonel Yannis Papanikolaou of Hellenic Army, MBA, Msc in IT According to what is taught in modern military academies, which reflect the views of the great generals and strategists of 18th and 19th century, military activities take place at two levels, strategic and tactical.[1] The higher level, strategic, deals with the preparation of forces for war and with the design and conduct of the war, while the lower level, the tactical, focuses on the distribution of military units and conduct of combat activities on the battlefield. The increased size of the armed forces has led some people to…
The Muslim Brotherhood Power Grab in Egypt and Foreign Policy Ramifications
Muslim Brotherhood Power Grab in Egypt and Foreign Policy Ramifications by Kristopher Kaim Former U.S. Army Intelligence A chain reaction of events is currently taking place in the Middle-East. The situation in the region is unlike what we have seen in decades and as a result it will take careful diplomatic skill to properly handle the situation. Any faltering will result in not only the complete destabilization of the region but also the loss of American influence as well. What happened? On December 18th, 2010, Tunisia was engulfed in mass protesting over unfair wages, civil rights violations, and government oppression. Tunisia is a pro-Western ally and the wealthiest in…
Ideological Identity and Geostrategic Deadlocks of the “New” Turkey
The ideological identity and the Geostrategic Deadlocks of the “New” Turkey by Brigadier General Christos Minagias, (Retired) of Hellenic Army The regional policy of Turkey, aiming at filling the power vacancies in the Middle East, especially highlighted its military power causing great concern to all of the neighbor states. This fact, in combination with the cultural and economic infiltration attempted by the Turkish side, grew even bigger concerns and as a result, oppositions to the Turkish expansionist policy, along with the, obvious or backstage, highly important participation of the Great Powers. The ideological identity of the “New”…
Iranian Nuclear Program: Best and Wordt Case Scenarios
Iranian Nuclear Program: Best and Worst Case Scenarios by Brigadier General Vasileios Giannakopoulos, (Retired) of Hellenic Air Force Current Situation Since 1950’s Iran has developed a civilian nuclear program. In the 1990's it began pursuing an indigenous nuclear fuel cycle capability by developing a uranium mining infrastructure and experimenting with uranium conversion and enrichment. It suspended its enrichment and conversion activities in 2003, but resumed uranium conversion in 2005, and started enrichment in 2006, increasing the enrichment level to almost 20% in 2010. Today, there are strong doubts that its enrichment activities serve only…
The Democratic Peace Hypothesis and Greek Foreign Policy: The 1974 Cyprus Dispute
by Vassilios Damiras GEOSTRATEGIC FORECASTING CORPORATION - GSFC CEO Genesis The “democratic peace” hypothesis encourages hope for a new age of international peace among nation-states that adopt democratic values and beliefs. It argues that democracies are more likely than non-democracies to resolve disputes among themselves in a peaceful manner. Its core assumption--that democracies do not fight wars with each other--constitutes the closet one can get to an “iron-clad law” in international relations. The policymaking world strongly adheres to this viewpoint, as demonstrated by U.S. Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack…
Greece and Israel in an Era of Friendship and Cooperation
Greece and Israel in an Era of Geostrategic Friendship and Cooperation by Vassilios Damiras, Ph.D. (ABD) GEOSTRATEGIC FORECASTING CORPORATION - GSFC CEO Greece and Israel's rich and complicated histories and cultures have seen them associated with all the crucial historical developments in the eastern Mediterranean, Balkan and Middle East regions. The Jewish Zionist movement that was created in the late 19th century by Theodore Herzl had very similar characteristics to the Greek irredentist movement of the “Great Idea.” Both nations have triumphed as Diaspora. Both ethnic groups have been occupied by the Ottomans yet still managed to influence the economy of…
The U.S.A. and the Middle East in the Twenty-First Century and its Challenges
The U.S.A. and the Middle East in the Twenty-First Century and its Challenges by Vassilios Damiras, Ph.D (ABD) GEOSTRATEGIC FORECASTING CORPORATION - GSFC CEO Events since the terrorists’ attacks of September 11, 2001, have dramatically and drastically changed the political environment in the Arab and Muslims worlds, a vast diverse region incorporating the band of nation-states with significant religious Muslim population that extends from western Africa to the southern Philippines, as well as Arab and Muslim communities and diasporas stretching throughout the globe. The United States is concerned with three types of serious threats to U.S. national…
Greece and the Financial Crisis of the 21st Century and its Global Implications
Greece and the Financial Crisis of the 21st Century and its Global Implications by Vassilios Damiras, Ph.D. (ABD) GEOSTRATEGIC FORECASTING CORPORATION - GSFC CEO Greece faces the most severe financial crisis since her independence in 1832 from the then powerful Ottoman Empire. The main cause for this complicated and serious problem is a corrupt socio-economic and political system. Greece has a huge public sector with an uncontrollable spending. Between the years 1981 to 1991, public-sector debt in Greece rose at about 5 percent per year, going from 39.3 of the GDP to 116.3 percent and climbed more in 2000s without ending in side. Of this total, 98.6 percent is been attributed…